New Product Forecasting On-line:
Feature 5: The Bass Model - Forecast Using Historical Analogies
In applying life cycle diffusion modeling to new product forecasting, typically the analyst is faced with not having historical data. If no historical data is available, then values can be made to reflect the Bass parameter assumptions - p & q (see Feature 4). If you have a product that has experienced all phases of the product life cycle (including the decline phase), they you can use feature 4 to estimate values for p & q and then use them as your Bass inputs below. Simply change any values of p & q as well as an estimate of total lifetime sales (a requirement for the Bass model).
1 1000
2 1950
3 3689
4 6568
5 10357
6 12863
7 10061
8 3303
9 210
10 0
# Forecast Periods
P (Coefficient of Innovation)
Q (Coefficient of Imitation)
Lifetime Total Sales