New Product Forecasting On-line:
Feature 4: The Bass Modeling Approach
Here, we offer a way to forecast
using the original Bass Model - a technique that integrates the decline phase of
the product life cycle into the prediction. This model is based on the theory that
the diffusion of an innovation is communicated by two channels: “word of mouth”
and “mass media” (advertising). Furthermore, adopters of the innovation consist
of two groups. One group (the innovators) is influenced only by mass media. The
other group is much larger (the imitators) and is influenced only by word of mouth
communication. The Bass Model has proven successful in retail, industrial technology,
agriculture, and consumer durables. Simply read-in your own data for the analysis.
However, for the algorithms to converge, your data has to reflect a fully mature
product with a decline phase as shown in the example file BASS.TXT.