New Product Forecasting On-line:
Feature 1: Forecasting with No History
In applying life cycle diffusion modeling to new product forecasting, typically the analyst is faced with not having historical data. If no historical data is available, then assumptions can be made to reflect the long term saturation level, the timing of the inflection point of the product, and how much pent-up demand might exist. The following forecasting module allows the user to make these assumptions which are then fit to a logistic diffusion pattern where the inflection point of the curve is equal to that point where 1/2 of the long run saturation level is reached. The information below gives some possible starting values for these assumptions so the user can get an understanding of how they can be used in the forecasting process. Simply press the FORECAST button and change these assumptions to make your own forecasts.
1 1958
2 4159
3 8399
4 15501
5 25000
6 34499
7 41601
8 45841
9 48042
10 49101
11 49592
No. Periods Delay Inflection Saturation
Level